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Read-o-Meter | Estimate the reading time

For example, 3 guys wrote a paper in 86 and they said that a good estimate is an estimate that’s within 25% of the original estimate, 75% of the time … so, mostly one quarter wrong .

Yikes, not a very good prospect at all.

The gist of #noestimates to determine how much scope can be delivered by a given date:

1. Select the most important piece of work you need to do (highest value first)
2. Break that piece of work down into risk-neutral chunks of work: (…) small enough that failing to deliver it at first attempt will not jeopardize the project [typically ~1 day chunks]
3. Develop (…) Deliver that work to a production-like environment. Work is only done when it is ready to be used by real customers.
4. Iterate and refactor : The first implementation can only reflect a first step in understanding what needs to be done.

Be careful to let the system stabilize before it can provide reliable averages to predict the teams’ throughput.

Symptoms of an unstable system are:

1. If velocity (# of storiesDone in one sprint) falls outside the control limits more than 3 times in a row (“outside limits”)
2. If there are 5 or more velocity points in a sequence (ascending or descending) (“Run test”)

See also:

• NoEstimates white paper
• How to improve estimates for software: The #NoEstimates view @ Agile Adria 2014 / Vasco Duarte

( Source: https://www.youtube.com/ )

#noestimates: using throughtput as a metric to predict progress

Vasco Duarte ( ALE Hangout with Vasco Duarte: No Estimates @ 41:50 )

Estimate the cost of an app easily using this handy tool.

This budget range is a rough estimate based on the amount of time it will take to complete your project and a recommended budget of $60-100 USD per hour (market rate for quality talent is typically in this range).

Considering the base rates stated in the tool, we can derive the following effort estimates which, in my opinion, are much more interesting to analyse (from a development point of view):

     =
     
      50-83h
     
     — Basic stand-alone app with stock UI
+ 30-50h — Add custom UI matching existing brand
+ 40-67h — Add original design for that custom UI
+ 20-33h — Login system via email only
+ 10-17h — Add login via social media also
+ 30-50h — In-app payments
+ 80-133h — Sync data across devices
+ 50-83h — User ratings & reviews
+ 30-50h — User profiles
+ 30-50h — Website integration
+ ~8h — Creating a custom app icon

The first 90% of the code accounts for the first 90% of the development time. The remaining 10% of the code accounts for the other 90% of the development time.

Tom Cargill, Bell Labs (the Ninety-ninety rule )

“Wow, there are a million little twists and turns on this coast. A 40 mile day will barely get us past Half Moon Bay. This trip is at least 500, not 400 miles…”